Black day for Brown after Labour's worst poll results for 40 years » Central government » 24dash.com

Black Friday. Bloodbath for Brown. May Day mauling. The newspaper headlines said it all. Gordon Brown woke today to the worst poll results for any Labour leader for 40 years.

At the height of Labour's euphoria after its landslide general election victory in 1997, John Prescott warned his party that the Tories were "not dead, just sleeping".

Well, the Conservative Party has certainly woken up and put itself back on the electoral map with a vengeance.

As David Cameron embarked on a victory tour by helicopter to visit councils captured by the Conservatives across England and Wales, he said it was a "big moment" for his party.

While he cautioned his party against assuming the next election was in the bag, the Conservatives are beginning to hope that a "tipping point" has been reached.

The local elections results appear to confirm that in recent weeks there has been a distinct shift in the political landscape. The Conservatives have regained a sense of self-confidence and are no longer on the losing streak that has kept them out of power for nearly 11 years.

In the London Mayoral election, there were groups of enthusiastic young Tory supporters outside rail and tube stations handing out leaflets for Boris Johnson. They received a good reception - at recent elections they would hardly have dared show their faces.

The Tories are also breaking out of their "southern comfort zone", to which they had been forced back during their long retreat from the major urban conurbations in the Midlands and the North of England.

Their victories in Nuneaton, Bury, Lancs, and the Vale of Glamorgan show that the party is once again taking on Labour in territory not normally associated with the Tories.

The Liberal Democrats, while making only modest gains, had the satisfaction of pushing Labour into third place in terms of the share of the vote.

While some Lib Dems have recently voiced disappointment that Nick Clegg's election as leader has not had more impact on their fortunes, the party leadership is relieved to have held on to many of its councils in the face of a strong Tory challenge.

Labour's vote appears to have fallen most heavily in its traditional heartlands, reinforcing the fears of Labour MPs that the row over the abolition of the 10p tax rate has damaged its core support. So-called Mondeo man, who switched from the Tories to Labour in the 1990s is now ready to vote Conservative once again.

The Tories' now have the initiative. The political momentum is with them. The 44 per cent share of the vote is close to the heady ratings that Tony Blair received in the early 1990s as the John Major government was disintegrating.

But while the Tories can bask in their success today, being seen as the government-in-waiting will make life tougher for Mr Cameron. Conservative policies will come under much greater scrutiny and he will have spell out what he stands for. Being nice will not be enough.

A subdued and tired Gordon Brown admitted it had been a "bad" and "disappointing" night for Labour, and he blamed "difficult economic circumstances" for the mauling Labour had suffered at the hands of the voters.

He has not yet celebrated his first anniversary as leader, but has seen Labour's share of the vote fall to around 24% - a worse performance than when Michael Foot led the party in the early 1980s.

Mr Brown brushed aside suggestions that he should make way for someone else, saying that the test of leadership "is not what happens in a period of success but what happens in difficult circumstances."

He promised that he would steer the country "through these difficult times" and even held out the prosecute of the economic gloom lifting - though there is no guarantee that it will happen before the next general election, which must be held by the latest in June 2010.

Labour can no longer dismiss the bad poll results as a protest vote or mid-term blues. Mr Brown is on the defensive on numerous fronts: the state of the economy; rising food and fuel prices; higher mortgage costs and falling house prices; as well as criticism of his leadership style and failure to spell out a clear agenda for his government.

Fearing the worst, Labour rushed forward the by-election in Crewe and Nantwich caused by the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody. It will be held on May 22, but her 7,000 major now looks vulnerable.

Mr Brown is already planning what has been described by Whitehall insiders as an "aggressive relaunch". He is adopting a new contrite tone, admitting there were mistakes over the 10p tax and promising to "listen and learn".

He is planning to unveil a draft Queen's Speech at the end of this month to show that the Government has not run out of steam and is "on the side" of hard working voters. It will include measures on welfare, education reforms and involving the community in tackling crime.

But Labour MPs are beginning to wonder whether Mr Cameron's recent jibe at Prime Minister's questions that Mr Brown was a "loser not a leader" may have hit home.

As Labour waited for the expected confirmation that Boris Johnson had ousted Ken Livingstone in London, Mr Brown was looking an increasingly beleaguered figure.

One Labour MP remarked that the Prime Minister's home in Fife is represented by a Liberal Democrat MP, it is in a country ruled by the Scottish Nationalists and his official home at No 10 would soon be in a city run by a Conservative mayor.