Cost of social care for UK's elderly 'set to double'

The cost of social care for the elderly is set to double in the next 15 years just to maintain current standards, a report said today.

New research by the King's Fund thinktank found that the bill, projected to reach £8.1 billion in 2015, would hit £12.1 billion in 2026.

Should the Government introduce universal free social care for the elderly, costs would rise to £16.8 billion by 2016, it said.

The King's Fund called for a "partnership" model, whereby half of everyone's care was met by the state, which would also match every £2 spent by the individual with an additional £1.

That would cost £10.1 billion in 2015 and £15.5 billion in 2026, the thinktank said.

But it would also halve the amount of people in need of care but unable to access it by 2015. With the status quo, unmet need will continue to rise.

The publication, an update of the Wanless report in 2006 which initially proposed the partnership model, comes amid intense political debate about the way forward on elderly social care.

Inter-party talks on the issue recently broke down over the issue of compulsory payments, or what the Tories described as a "death tax".

Health Secretary Andy Burnham has ruled out the prospect of a £20,000 flat-rate levy on estates after an individual's death, but is considering a percentage levy, perhaps at 10%.

The Tories are proposing a voluntary insurance scheme, which they say could be charged at about £8,000 on retirement.

Another option included in the Government's green paper last year was state funding out of general taxation.

The King's Fund argued that the partnership model was the best approach, but that whether contributions were voluntary or compulsory was a matter for further debate.

It added, however, that its proposal could be offset by reform of the attendance allowance, a non-means tested benefit to help pensioners meet additional costs associated with disability.

Anna Dixon, acting chief executive of the King's Fund, said: "The current social care system often falls short of meeting the needs of the people who rely on it and will not be able to cope with increasing demand for services as the population ages.

"The people who stand to benefit most from our proposals are those on moderate and middle incomes who are heavily penalised by the current system."