Blueprint for Afghanistan withdrawal to be drawn up at London conference

Published by Jon Land for 24dash.com in Central Government

A bid to lure Taliban fighters away from the insurgency with job offers will be high on the agenda when up to 70 countries meet today for crucial talks on the future of Afghanistan.

Agreement to fund the Kabul-run scheme, which Afghan President Hamid Karzai is to detail at the one-day London conference, will be sought from international partners engaged in the campaign.

Mr Karzai will also face pressure to agree higher targets for boosting the size of the homegrown army and police and for tougher measures to tackle widespread corruption.

The high-level event was convened in a bid to draw up a blueprint for Afghan forces to gradually take over responsibility for growing areas of their country - paving the way for the eventual withdrawal of international troops, who have been in the country since 2001.

Despite increasing public concerns over mounting military losses however, it will not set any dates for withdrawal, with one senior diplomat predicting they could be there for another 15 years.

Troop numbers are higher than ever and some of the 9,500 British forces in Southern Afghanistan are set to join a renewed Nato push to "assert control" over some parts of Helmand province.

But officials also hope the conference will showcase a beefed up effort to better co-ordinate aid and reconstruction efforts, pave the way for an economic help programme from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and secure stronger commitments of support from Afghanistan's neighbours.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who is co-hosting the conference with Mr Karzai and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, wants at least five Afghan provinces - and some districts of the lawless Helmand region - back in Afghan control by the end of this year.

And last night he backed the "re-integration" proposals to offer incentives to low- and middle-ranking Taliban fighters to abandon their armed struggle with British and other Nato troops.

Under the scheme, jobs in security forces and agriculture or education would be offered in a bid to attract insurgents who were not ideologically committed to the Taliban's fight but joined because of poverty - which it is thought could amount to around half of their number.

If successful, it is hoped that it would eventually attract more senior members although officials acknowledge that there are many "irreconcilables" who will have to be fought militarily.

However, Mr Karzai is yet to explain how the incentive system, which the Taliban dismissed yesterday as a "trick", would operate.

Talking to students from the UK and Afghanistan during a question time-style session with Mr Karzai at Downing Street last night Mr Brown said: "To weaken the Taliban you divide them and offer those people who are prepared to renounce violence and join the democratic process a way out."

There are suggestions that Mr Karzai could use the conference to reach out to the Taliban leadership by announcing the convening of a loya jirga - an Afghan peace council.

He already this week persuaded the United Nations to lift sanctions imposed on five of the former senior Taliban officials.

Speaking at Number 10 Mr Karzai said: "In order to keep the country safe and move it to a better future, we have to work within the availability of politics there. As they say, politics is the art of the possible.

"We will continue to seek peace in Afghanistan, using all the means that are available to us."

Part of the wide-ranging overhaul of the non-military aspects of the international operation, including under-fire reconstruction programmes, is the appointment of new senior officials.

Mark Sedwill, Britain's ambassador in Kabul, will take over as Nato's senior civilian representative immediately after the conference and Mr Ban yesterday announced Swedish diplomat Staffan de Mistura, a UN veteran of several conflict zones, would be his next special envoy to Afghanistan.

Mr Sedwill predicted this week international troops would remain "for 10 to 15 years", in a combat role for three of those before shifting their focus to mentoring Afghan soldiers.

Those invited to take part in the conference include foreign ministers from the countries making up the Nato mission, and from Afghanistan's immediate neighbours and key regional players.

Iran was invited but announced yesterday that it would not attend, although Downing Street said it remained hopeful a representative of its London embassy would take part.

There will also be representatives from Nato itself, the United Nations, the European Union and other international organisations such as the World Bank.

America will be represented by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who last night joined a smaller international summit in London to discuss the security threat from extremists in Yemen.

The meeting was called by Gordon Brown in the wake of the Christmas Day attempt to bring down a US-bound airliner, a plot which is believed to have been planned by Yemen-based al Qaida militants.

Foreign Secretary David Miliband, who chaired the meeting and will play a similar role today, said the Yemeni government put forward a reform programme and had agreed to initiate discussions on an International Monetary Fund help programme.

In turn, international partners - including the six members of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) - pledged to give more help addressing social, economic and security problems, he said.

Practical action to strengthen the Yemeni coastguard service was agreed and a Friends of Yemen process set up that would begin with a meeting in the region in late March.

In a joint interview with Mr Brown recorded on Wednesday for the BBC Radio 4 Today programme, Mr Karzai said that his country would need international support for years to come.

"With regard to training and equipping the Afghan security forces, five to 10 years will be enough," he said.

"With regard to sustaining them until Afghanistan is financially able to provide for our forces, the time will be extended to 10 to 15 years."

Mr Brown said: "Our strategy is to help the Afghan people to be strong enough so that their own security is their responsibility and not the responsibility of 43 countries."

Defence Secretary Bob Ainsworth said the Afghan government must be prepared to "reach out to elements of the insurgency".

He said the focus was now on improving the Afghan National Security Forces "so that our troops can come home".

Asked about a realistic timetable for withdrawal, Mr Ainsworth told GMTV: "I don't think we can set some artificial timetable but what I think we can see is progress in this next year to a position where, increasingly, we can get the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police to start to take the lead in their own security.

"The overwhelming majority of our effort now is going into getting the Afghan National Army to the kind of numbers that they need and the kind of capability that they need so that they can start to control areas and provide the security to Afghan people so that our troops can come home."

Asked what was needed from the Afghan government, he said: "A preparedness to reach out to elements of the insurgency that are not part of the international jihadist movement commitment and are prepared to rejoin the legitimate political process in Afghanistan, and a commitment to good governance and tackling corruption."