Labour concedes defeat in Norwich North by-election

Labour sources said today the party was not only set to lose the Norwich North by-election but could be pushed into a humiliating third place.

With counting under way, the Conservatives were on course to overturn the 5,459 majority won in 2005 by Ian Gibson, who quit the Commons after being controversially banned from standing again for Labour over his use of taxpayer-funded expenses.

One Labour insider said: "The Conservatives are trying to play down what is happening but I think the reality is that Labour is in a fight with the Lib Dems for second place.

"The turnout has been poor in traditional Labour areas and I think the reality is that the Tories have taken the seat."

Green sources also said the Conservatives were set for victory.

But a Green Party spokesman said: "We are still confident of claiming our best result in a by-election."

Count organisers said the turnout was around 45%, around par for a by-election of this kind.

Tory leader David Cameron has visited the constituency six times during the campaign, underlining the Opposition's determination to snatch the seat for candidate Chloe Smith.

Mr Gibson, a popular local MP, quit last month after Labour's "star chamber" barred him from standing for the party again following revelations that he claimed almost £80,000 in second home expenses on a London flat which he later sold at a knock-down price to his daughter.

But the treatment of the independent-minded MP, by what was dubbed a "kangaroo court" by Norwich South MP and ex-home secretary Charles Clarke, angered local activists and many others within the party.

Senior Labour MP Tony Wright said he believed that, despite huge public anger over the Westminster expenses scandal, Mr Gibson would have easily won the by-election if he had stood as an independent.

Mr Wright, chairman of the Commons Public Administration Committee and a friend of Mr Gibson's, told BBC 2's Newsnight: "I think there were people in the House of Commons who did far worse things than he did.

"I think he was a victim of a moment when all the parties, and all the party leaders, were falling over each other to show how tough they were being.

"One of the fascinating paradoxes of this election is that if Ian had been standing, a victim of the expenses scandal, in this first election since we had the expenses row, he would have walked it by a mile."

Prime Minister Gordon Brown has acknowledged the party could suffer at the ballot box and attempted to focus the blame for any poor performance on the "unique" circumstances of the election.

Labour's candidate, Chris Ostrowski, is staying away from the count after being forced to abandon the campaign trail in the run-up to polling day after collapsing with a bout of swine flu and being taken to hospital.

His wife is expected to be there.

If Ms Smith, 27, does win the seat, she will become the youngest MP at Westminster.

The unofficial title of "baby of the House" is currently held by 29-year-old Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson.

Confirming Mr Ostrowski's absence, a Labour spokesman said: "We think he has swine flu - he is certainly poorly.

"He has decided not to attend both because he is feeling unwell and because he does not want to infect anyone."

The returning officer has given Mr Ostrowski's wife, Katie, permission to attend in his place.

On the result, Conservative MP Theresa May - the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary - said she would make no predictions.

"I never speculate or predict election results," she said.

"But there was a positive feel out on the doorsteps."

She said Conservative candidate Ms Smith would make a good MP.

"Some people are saying they are just not going to vote," she added.

"I think some people have said a 'plague on both your houses' and that's understandable."

Labour MP Bob Blizzard, who represents Waveney, said: "We will have to wait and see, but I think it's going to be very tough.

"It is traditional in British by-elections for the Government to get a good kicking, and we have some unusual circumstances.

"We had a very popular local MP, who resigned following a disciplinary decision by the party.

"A lot of people are very, very unhappy about that, and there are definitely some Labour supporters out there who are not voting because of that.

"Some are saying 'We will come back to you at the General Election, but not this time'.

"Our task has been to try and get the message across that, by not voting, they are going to be left with a Tory MP.

"I think we might be able to get that message across at a General Election, but we are struggling here.

"Ironically, despite all the unhappiness about Ian Gibson, one of the messages we are getting when we ask if people want a Tory MP is 'No, no, no, no, no'."