Bank of England holds interest rates 0.5%
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Rate-setters held back from further aid for the economy today as
the Bank of England paused for breath in its battle against
recession.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held interest rates at their
0.5% record low, with no increases in its £125 billion
programme to boost the money supply after its two-day
meeting.
"The scale of the programme will be kept under review," the Bank
said.
The move could signal the Bank is in "wait and see" mode as it
judges the strength of possible green shoots in the economy,
following better news from many industry surveys and the housing
market.
Interest rates have plummeted from 5% last October and the Bank has
embarked on so-called quantitative easing (QE) - effectively
printing money - in unprecedented efforts to get the economy
moving.
At the Bank's last inflation report, Governor Mervyn King said
there were some "promising signs" but warned of a "relatively slow
and protracted" recovery for the economy.
Rate-setters have also hinted that further stimulus may be
necessary and they have permission from Chancellor Alistair Darling
to create another £25 billion under QE if needed - to a
£150 billion initial limit.
Ian McCafferty, chief economic adviser to the CBI business group,
said: "There are some encouraging, if tentative, signs that the QE
programme is reducing the downside risk to the economy, but
monetary and lending conditions remain fragile.
"The Bank is likely to need to continue to use the QE tool in
coming months."
Today's decision came as the MPC assessed a raft of conflicting
data to weigh up the sustainability of any early signs of
recovery.
Survey data from the UK's powerhouse services sector yesterday
signalled growth returning after more than a year of declining
output. This came after more upbeat signs from the manufacturing
and construction sector, with decline rates easing off.
There has also been cheer from the housing market, with house price
figures from the Halifax today showing a 2.6% jump in prices during
May - the biggest monthly rise since October 2002.
Nationwide also reported rising prices in May - the second rise in
three months for the society's index.
But there have been more pessimistic signs, including figures
released earlier this week showing lending to businesses had fallen
by nearly £5 billion during April.
This has cast early doubt over how successful the QE programme has
been so far.
Meanwhile mortgage lending slumped to an eight-year low of just
£2.7 billion during April - the lowest figure since March
2001 - according to the British Bankers' Association.
ING Bank economist James Knightley said it was "important not to
get too carried away" with early signs of green shoots.
"There are ongoing risks to the recovery story with unemployment
still surging, profits plunging and credit growth at or around
zero," he said.
The Bank of England is charged with keeping inflation at 2% and its
benchmark, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), slid to 2.3% from 2.9%
in April.
The MPC expects CPI to fall well below the 2% target later this
year, but will also be wary of the deflationary impact of the
pound's recent strength, which could act as a further drag.
Some experts had predicted a further QE boost today because the
Bank's own forecasts see CPI undershooting the 2% target even with
rates at 0.5% and an extra £125 billion of monetary stimulus
already helping the economy.
The FTSE 100 Index was virtually unchanged following the Bank's
widely-expected decision.
The British Chambers of Commerce however called on the Bank to
raise the pace of its QE programme today.
Chief economic adviser David Kern said: "The positive mood in the
financial markets should not lull anyone into a false sense of
security. Tackling the recession must remain the priority,
especially with unemployment rising and firms continuing to slash
investment.
"The MPC must up the tempo at which they execute QE, while
increasing the scheme's size beyond £125 billion."
IHS Global Insight economist Howard Archer added that he expected
the Bank would keep rates at 0.5% "deep into 2010" and eventually
push QE beyond its current £150 billion threshold until it
was sure of a sustainable recovery.
"We suspect that the Bank of England will not be unduly swayed by
the latest improved data and survey evidence and will treat it with
a huge amount of caution for now," he said.
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