UK 'should prepare for more flooding' » Environment » 24dash.com

The UK should brace itself for further flooding in the coming months, with soils left saturated by heavy summer downpours unable to absorb extra rainwater, experts warned today.

The Environment Agency has given "enhanced flood warnings" across England and Wales because massive amounts of water stored underground following the recent deluges could overflow if further heavy rain hits the country.

If this week's calmer weather foments sustained sunshine, water-logged ground could dry out.

But with the approaching winter months, the danger of more flooding could persist through to next year, according to Terry Marsh, of the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology at Wallingford in Oxfordshire.

He said: "If we have a very dry autumn, soils could dry out, but typically, with average rainfall, we can expect an enhanced flood risk all throughout autumn and winter.

"Soils have been the wettest since records began in 1961. The rainfall that flooded Tewkesbury was exceptional - you would expect to see that sort of thing maybe once every thousand years."

With no monsoon and little seasonal variation in rainfall, summer rainfall levels in the UK are comparable to winter.

In the 19th century, Mr Marsh said, many summers were even wetter than in winter, but dry summer soils usually absorb most of the rainwater, reducing flood risks.

But he said: "The difference this year is that rivers and soil moisture are so high. With soils as wet as they are, we can expect a longer period with enhanced risk of flooding. We are definitely in a more vulnerable position."

The Environment Agency said it was "worried" about land in the North, Wales, Midlands and South West, after rain in July and August filled aquifers across the regions, and normally drier summer water levels were already high in the run-up to autumn.

Spokesman Simon Hughes said: "There is a chance there will be more wet weather and we are concerned."

He warned that there was little that authorities could do to absorb the effects and would be unable to pinpoint water developments more than several hours beforehand, leaving them at the mercy of natural processes.

He said: "Four hundred million tons of rain fell on Yorkshire in 12 hours - we are talking about a fantastic amount of water."

But he added: "There is a reduced impact if you are prepared for it. If it comes to evacuations then the police will come knocking on doors, but things like moving furniture upstairs, securing your home and turning off the gas can make it easier to get back in afterwards."

Meteogroup, the weather division of the Press Association, said a crisis looked unlikely in the shorter term, with relatively mild weather expected over the next week.

Spokeswoman Claire Austin said: "Things are settling down in most places over the next week.

"The eastern counties of England and northern Scotland will have some patchy rain, but through the week, the south-east of England holds on to much of the cloud and rain but it will be mainly dry in the rest of the UK."

But even persistent light rain could be enough to limit ground water drying out, meaning soils would have little time to evaporate before spring.

Mr Hughes said: "People need to find out if they are in a risk area - they can call our 24-hour flood line on 0845 988 1188 or visit environment-agency.gov.uk. They need to find out what kind of flood warning there is in their area and sign up."

Only 40% of eligible households have signed up to the agency's automated flood warning system, it said.

On the positive side, reservoirs are full and aquifers and ground water levels are high, meaning there would at least be a plentiful supply of water going into winter.

A spokesman for the Environment Agency said: "This is good news in terms of water resources - this time last year we were facing the worst drought for a hundred years."

But Mr Marsh said the "alert signals" should not be ignored.

He said: "The short-term risk is in the North York Moors and the Severn estuary - where the wettest parts are."

Copyright Press Association 2007.

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